Mosca's Theorem and the arrival of quantum computing

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The world of cryptography and the progress towards the computing quantum has generated a constant concern: what will happen when the technologies security technologies become obsolete in the face of powerful quantum computers? This panorama has generated terms and theories such as Mosca's theorem, which attempts to project the time we have to act before the cryptography modern is irreparably broken. In this article we will explore the Mosca's theorem, its impact, its key components and how it relates to the advances of the computers quantum.

Dr. Michele Mosca, expert in cryptography, formulated this principle with the aim of analyzing and predicting the moment in which the technologies Quantum machines will break the algorithms cryptographic However, the theorem is not limited to being a simple warning, but also proposes a strategy to mitigate this threat, insisting on the urgency of updating the systems cryptographic before it is too late.

What is Mosca's Theorem and how is it formulated?

El Mosca's theorem is expressed as a simple but crucial equation: X + Y > Z. Each of these elements represents a key factor:

• X: The length of time for which data must be kept secure.
• Y: The time needed to implement solutions cryptographic resistant to computing quantum.
• Z: The time before quantum computers are able to break the cryptography figure.

The goal is that the sum of X e Y is not greater than ZIf this inequality is not met, the risk is evident: the data will be exposed before the solutions be ready to protect them.

Key components of the Theorem

Each element of this formula has important implications. Below we analyze each part in detail:

1. The useful life of security (X)

This term refers to how long data protected under the algorithms should remain secure. cryptographic current. In some cases, this useful life can be just a few years, but in sectors such as the Bank or healthcare, protection could be necessary for decades.

2. Migration time (Y)

Upgrade current systems to robust algorithms computing quantum computing is not a trivial task. This process can involve anything from the development and adoption of standards to technical implementation in complex infrastructures. On average, it could take between three and five years or even longer.

3. The collapse time (Z)

This is the estimated time in which quantum computers will have sufficient capacity to break the algorithms of encryption current. Although experts do not agree on an exact date, some estimates suggest that this could happen in the next 10-20 years, depending on the pace of progress in this technology.

A practical example of Mosca's Theorem

Let's imagine a institution financial institution that needs to protect sensitive data of its Clients due to regulations such as the GDPR. Suppose this institution needs to keep that data safe for a decade, which represents the value of X.

As for the value of Y, it is estimated that they will need about four years to migrate their current system to one resistant to quantum advances. Finally, if quantum computers capable of breaking the cryptography current arrive in five years (Z), the risk is obvious: the organization would not have enough time to protect itself.

This example makes it clear how the Mosca's theorem It is useful for measuring risk and making strategic decisions about transitioning to more secure systems.

Implications of quantum computing

La computing Quantum represents a technological advance that could transform sectors such as medicine, meteorology and exploration space. However, the most immediate impact could be felt in the ciberseguridad.

Current algorithms that protect our banking transactions, communications and confidential data are based on mathematical problems that are intractable for computers. classical, but not for the machines quantum. This could lead to what some call the “quantum apocalypse”, in which the keys of encryption are deciphered in a matter of hours.

Actions needed to face the quantum future

Given this scenario, experts recommend working on the crypto agility, that is, the ability to quickly adapt to new algorithms and regulations to maximise security and your enjoyment.Some key points include:

• Invest in research and development of algorithms resistant to computing quantum.
• Collaborate with international organizations to establish standards global
• Conduct regular audits and tests to assess the vulnerability of current systems.

In addition, it is essential to implement educational strategies to train professionals in the field of ciberseguridad in new technologies and threats.

El Mosca's theorem It clearly underlines the need to act preventively to mitigate future risks. It invites us to reflect on the challenges of progress technological and take concrete steps to ensure a safe and secure digital future.