- I-Subjective Probability isivumela ukuthi sihlole ukungaqiniseki ngokusekelwe emibonweni yomuntu siqu nolwazi.
- Kubalulekile ukwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi kuzilungiselelo zomuntu siqu nezomsebenzi.
- Izinto ezifana nemizwa nemibono yochwepheshe kunomthelela ekuhlolweni kwamathuba.
- Ukuthuthukisa amathuba aphathekayo kudinga ukuqoqa idatha futhi kucatshangelwe izimo ezihlukene.
Uyemukelwa ohambweni oluhehayo lokungena emhlabeni we-Subjective Probability kanye nomthelela wawo Ekuthathweni Kwezinqumo! Kulesi sihloko, sizohlola ukuthi lo mqondo ungasisiza kanjani senze izinqumo ezinolwazi nokuthi singawusebenzisa kanjani ezimweni zansuku zonke. Kusukela ekuqondeni izisekelo zamathuba okuzicabangela kuye ekubeni nomthelela ekuthathweni kwezinqumo komuntu siqu nokochwepheshe, ake singene esihlokweni esingashintsha indlela esibona ngayo umhlaba.
Isingeniso
Ezweni eligcwele ukungaqiniseki, ikhono lokwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi liyikhono elibaluleke kakhulu. Amathuba Okuphathekayo (umbono) uvezwa njengethuluzi elinamandla elisivumela ukuthi sihlole izimo ngokunembe kakhudlwana futhi senze izinqumo ngokusekelwe ekuboneni kwethu okungenzeka. Isebenza kanjani? Ziyini ukusetshenziswa kwayo okungokoqobo? Qhubeka ufunde ukuze uthole!
I-Subjective Probability
Kuyini Ukungenzeka Kwezinto Ezibonakalayo? Ukungenzeka Kwezinto Ezibonakalayo kuyindlela yokulinganisa ukungaqiniseki ezimweni lapho idatha eqondile ilinganiselwe noma ingekho. Esikhundleni sokuthembela kuphela kuzibalo kanye nedatha ye-epidemical, ukungenzeka kwezinto ezibonakalayo kusekelwe embonweni womuntu siqu wamathuba. Ngamanye amazwi, yindlela umuntu ahlola ngayo amathuba okwenzeka kwesenzakalo.
Kulinganiswa Kanjani Ukungenzeka Kwezinto Ezibonakalayo? Ukulinganisa amathuba abonwayo kungumuntu ngamunye futhi kuncike ezintweni ezicatshangelwayo. Ngokuvamile kuvezwa esikalini sika-0 kuya ku-1, lapho u-0 emele amathuba angu-zero kanti u-1 emele amathuba aphelele. Amanani aphakathi kuka-0 no-1 abonisa amazinga ahlukahlukene okungenzeka.
Kungani Ukungenzeka Kwezinto Ezibonakalayo Kubalulekile? Ukungenzeka kwezinto ezibonakalayo kubalulekile ngoba kuyaqaphela ukuthi imibono yethu kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kwethu kuthonya indlela esihlola ngayo ingozi kanye nokungenzeka. Lokhu kubaluleke kakhulu ekwenzeni izinqumo, lapho singenalo njalo ulwazi oluqondile lokusekela izinqumo zethu.
Ukwenza Izinqumo Ezinolwazi
Ukubaluleka Kokwenza Izinqumo Ezinolwazi: Ukwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi kubalulekile empilweni yansuku zonke. Kusukela ekukhetheni komuntu siqu njengokukhetha umsebenzi kuya ezinqumweni zobungcweti njengokutshala imali ebhizinisini, izinqumo zethu zinomthelela omkhulu empilweni yethu. Amathuba angokomqondo angaba umsizi obalulekile kule nqubo.
Izicelo Zamathuba Abalulekile Ekuthathweni Kwezinqumo
- Ukukhethwa Kwezimali: Ngokuhlola amathuba empumelelo ye-investimenti, amathuba okuqonda angakusiza wenze izinqumo zezezimali unolwazi.
- Ukuhlela Umsebenzi:Uma ucubungula izinketho ezahlukene zemisebenzi, ungasebenzisa amathuba okubona ukuze uhlole amathuba akho okuphumelela endleleni ngayinye.
- Ukwenza Izinqumo Zezempilo: Ezimweni zezempilo, amathuba okubona angakusiza ukuthi uhlole ubungozi nezinzuzo zokwelashwa okuhlukile.
- Izinketho Zomuntu Siqu: Kusukela ekunqumeni ukuthi uzothuthela yini edolobheni elisha ukuya ekukhetheni imoto yakho elandelayo, amathuba okuzicabangela angathonya ukukhetha kwakho komuntu siqu.
Isibonelo Esiwusizo: Ukuthenga Indlu Ake uzicabange ucabanga ukuthenga indlu endaweni ekhulayo. Imininingwane eqondile, njengenani lemakethe kanye namazinga enzalo, ibalulekile. Kodwa-ke, amathuba akho okubona nawo ayabandakanyeka. Ucabanga ukuthi indawo izoqhubeka nokukhula? Uyaqiniseka ukuthi inani lempahla lizokhula? Ukuhlola le mibuzo kubalulekile ekwenzeni isinqumo esinolwazi.
Izinto Ezithonya Amathuba Okucabanga
Okuhlangenwe nakho Komuntu Siqu: Okuhlangenwe nakho kwethu komuntu siqu kudlala indima ebalulekile ekwakheni amathuba ethu okucabanga. Uma siye saphumelela ezimweni ezifanayo esikhathini esidlule, cishe sizoba nethemba elikhulu ekuhlolweni kwethu kwamathuba.
Imizwa Nokucwaswa Kwengqondo Imizwa yethu ingathonya ukuhlolwa kwethu kwamathuba abonwayo. Isibonelo, ukwesaba kungasiholela ekuqageleni izingozi ngokweqile, kuyilapho injabulo ingasenza singazinaki. Siphinde sibe nezimo zokucwaswa kwengqondo, njengobandlululo lokuqinisekisa, olungaphambukisa umbono wethu wamathuba.
Ulwazi Olutholakalayo: Inani kanye nekhwalithi yolwazi olutholakalayo nakho kuthinta ukuhlolwa kwethu kwamathuba okucatshangelwa. Ngokuvamile, lapho sinolwazi oluningi, kulapho izilinganiso zethu zamathuba zizoba zinembile khona.
Imibono Yochwepheshe: Imibono yochwepheshe emkhakheni othile ingathonya imibono yethu. Uma sithembela kokuhlangenwe nakho nolwazi lochwepheshe, cishe sizolungisa ukuhlolwa kwethu ngokusekelwe ezincomweni zabo.
Amasu Okuthuthukisa Amathuba Okucabanga
Ukuqoqa Imininingwane Efanele: Ukuze wenze izinqumo ezinolwazi oluthe xaxa ngokusekelwe emathubeni omuntu siqu, kubalulekile ukuqoqa idatha efanele. Cwaninga, bheka imithombo ethembekile, futhi uqoqe ulwazi oluningi ngangokunokwenzeka ngaphambi kokwenza isinqumo.
Hlola Okuhlangenwe Nakho Kwesikhathi Esidlule Ukucabanga ngokuhlangenwe nakho kwakho kwesikhathi esidlule nokuthi kuhlobana kanjani nesimo samanje kungakusiza ukuthi ulungise izilinganiso zakho zamathuba ezizimele.
Cabanga Ngezimo Ezihlukene Ungazibekeli umkhawulo ekuhlolweni okukodwa kwamathuba. Cabanga ngezimo ezahlukene nokuthi zingathinta kanjani izinqumo zakho esimweni ngasinye. Lokhu kuzokusiza ukuthi wenze izinqumo eziguquguqukayo kakhudlwana.
Xhumana Nochwepheshe Noma nini lapho kungenzeka, funa umbono wochwepheshe abakulowo mkhakha. Ulwazi lwabo lungakunikeza ukuqonda okubalulekile.
Inselele Yokungaqiniseki
Impilo igcwele ukungaqiniseki, futhi amathuba okuqonda iyithuluzi elisivumela ukuthi sizule kule ndawo engashiwongo ngokuzethemba. Ngokuqonda ukuthi isebenza kanjani nokuthi ingaba nomthelela kanjani ezinqumweni zethu, singenza izinqumo ezinolwazi futhi sibhekane nezinselele ngokuqiniseka.
Imibuzo ebuzwa njalo
- Iyini I-Subjective Probability?
- Amathuba Okuphathekayo kuyindlela yokulinganisa ukungaqiniseki ezimeni ezinedatha elinganiselwe noma engenakho. Isekelwe ekuboneni komuntu mathubeni omcimbi.
- Amathuba e-Subjective akalwa kanjani?
- Ikalwa ngayodwana nangokuvumelana, ngokuvamile esikalini sika-0 kuye ku-1, lapho u-0 ebonisa amathuba aziro kanye no-1, amathuba aphelele. Amanani amaphakathi abonisa amazinga ahlukene wamathuba.
- Kungani Amathuba Okubona Kubalulekile?
- Ibalulekile ngoba ibona umthelela wemibono yethu nezinto esizizwile ekuhlolweni kobungozi kanye namathuba, okubalulekile ekuthathweni kwezinqumo.
- Amathuba Okuphathekayo Asebenza Kanjani Ekuthathweni Kwezinqumo Zansuku Zonke?
- Ekukhetheni ukutshalwa kwezimali, ukuhlela umsebenzi, izinqumo zezokwelapha, kanye nokukhetha komuntu siqu, amathuba okuzicabangela asiza ukuhlola ubungozi namathuba ngombono womuntu siqu.
- Yiziphi Izinto Ezithonya Amathuba Okuqonda?
- Kubandakanya ulwazi lomuntu siqu, imizwa, ukuchema, ulwazi olutholakalayo, nemibono yochwepheshe, konke okulolonga umbono wethu wamathuba.
- Ukuhlola Amathuba Okubona Kungathuthukiswa Kanjani?
- Ukuyithuthukisa kuhilela ukuqoqa idatha efanele, ukuhlola okuhlangenwe nakho kwesikhathi esidlule, ukucabangela izimo ezihlukahlukene kanye nokubonisana nochwepheshe ukuze kutholwe umbono onembe kakhudlwana futhi olinganiselayo.
Isiphetho
Amathuba asekelwe kumuntu kanye nokwenza izinqumo kuyahambisana nohambo lwempilo. Ngokuqaphela ukubaluleka kwemibono yethu kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kwethu ekuhloleni izingozi namathuba, singenza izinqumo ezinolwazi oluthe xaxa. Sebenzisa leli thuluzi eliwusizo ukubhekana nokungaqiniseki ngokuzethemba futhi ulawule ikusasa lakho.
Ngakho-ke, ingabe usukulungele ukuthatha isinyathelo esilandelayo sokwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi? Yabelana ngalesi sihloko nabangani bakho nomndeni wakho ukuze nabo bazuze ku-Subjective Probability futhi benze izinqumo ezingcono ezimpilweni zabo!