- Imboni ye-semiconductor isondela ekuthengisweni kwe-$1 trillion, okuqhutshwa yi-AI, ugesi, kanye nokuxhumana kwe-5G.
- Ukukhiqizwa kugxile e-Asia-Pacific, kuyilapho i-US, i-EU kanye ne-India bethula izikhuthazo ezinamandla zokuthutha nokusabalalisa amandla.
- Ukuhlanganiswa kokungezwani kwezepolitiki, ingozi yokwanda kwamandla, kanye nokuntuleka kwethalente elikhethekile kuzonquma ukuncintisana kwalo mkhakha.
Ama-semiconductor aseyingqalasizinda engabonakali yomnotho wedijithali : ngaphandle kwawo bekungeke kube khona ama-smartphone, amakhompyutha, izimoto zikagesi, amanethiwekhi e-5G, izikhungo zedatha, noma iningi lama-elekthronikhi ezimboni nawabathengi esiwasebenzisa nsuku zonke. Ukubaluleka kwawo kukhulu kangangokuthi manje awumthombo wamasu, ophakathi kwezingxabano ezinkulu zezwe kanye nezinhlelo zokutshalwa kwezimali kobuchwepheshe bomphakathi ezinkulu emhlabeni.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, lo mkhakha ubhekane nenhlanganisela yesidingo esikhulayo, izithiyo zokuhlinzeka, ukungezwani kwezohwebo, kanye negagasi elisha lokutshalwa kwezimali, okukubeka endaweni egqamile. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa obukhiqizayo, ukuzenzekela kwezimboni, ukufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha, kanye noshintsho lwamandla kukhulisa inani lama-chips ngedivayisi ngayinye. Ukuqonda ukuthi lo mkhakha uyaphi akuyona nje into ethakazelisayo kwezobuchwepheshe; kubalulekile kohulumeni, ezinkampanini, nakubatshalizimali abafuna ukubikezela izingozi namathuba.
Ukukhula kwakamuva kanye namathuba emali engenayo kulo mkhakha
Umkhakha we-semiconductor wavela ngo-2023 uthuthumele kancane ngenxa yobhubhane, kodwa u-2024 waphawula ukuguquka: ukuthengiswa komhlaba wonke kufinyelele cishe ku-$607.400 billion , ngokusho kwezilinganiso ze-Statista, okumele ukubuya okunamandla ngemuva kokulungiswa kwempahla yonyaka odlule. Imithombo eyahlukahlukene iyavuma ukuthi lokhu kunyuka akusikho okwesikhashana, kodwa kunalokho kuyisandulelo somjikelezo omusha wokwanda.
Ngo-2025, izinhlangano ezahlukahlukene zibikezela izibalo zokukhula okukhulu. I-Deloitte ibikezela ukuthengiswa okungaba yizigidigidi ezingama-697.000 zamaRandi , kuyilapho i-World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) iphakamisa ukubikezela kube cishe yizigidigidi ezingama-728.000 zamaRandi. Okwamanje, okunye ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe kubeka inani lomkhakha cishe ku- $702.000 billion ngo-2025 futhi kubikezela cishe ku-$951.000 billion ngo-2030, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingaba ngu-6-7%, esisekelwa amayunithi e-chip angaphezu kwe-trillion eyodwa athunyelwa minyaka yonke.
Ukwanda kwemali emakethe kukhombisa leli themba: inani elihlanganisiwe lezinkampani eziyishumi ezinkulu ze-chip lidlule u-$6,5 trillion ekupheleni kuka-2024 , cishe kabili kunalokho elaliyikho ngonyaka odlule. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kunyuka akuzange kufane: izinkampani ezixhumene nobuhlakani bokwenziwa obukhiqizayo kanye nekhompyutha esebenza kahle kakhulu zihole ngokusobala ukukhuphuka, kuyilapho izingxenye eziningi zendabuko zithuthukile ngesivinini esiphansi.
Isivumelwano esivamile emakethe ukuthi, ngaleli zinga, ama-semiconductors azoqina abe imboni yamadola ayizigidigidi ngaphambi kokuphela kweshumi leminyaka . Lokhu kwanda kusekelwa kokubili ukubuyiselwa kwezimakethe ezijikelezayo (ama-PC, ama-smartphone, izimoto) kanye namagagasi amasha okufunwa ezikhungweni zedatha, i-edge computing, ukuxhumana okuthuthukisiwe, kanye namandla avuselelekayo.
Ukuthuthukisa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nefu
Umshayeli obonakala kakhulu womjikelezo wokugcina kube ukuqhuma kobuhlakani bokwenziwa obukhiqizayo , okuqhubekisele phambili isidingo sama-chip asebenza kahle kakhulu okuqeqesha nokuqonda amamodeli ezilimi ezinkulu. Ngo-2024, ama-chip axhumene ngqo ne-AI ekhiqizayo ( ama-CPU afana nama-processor e-Intel , futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke, ama-GPU kanye nama-accelerator aklanyelwe ngqo izikhungo zedatha) adlule ukuthengisa okungaphezu kuka-$125.000 billion, kanye nezibikezelo ezingaphezu kuka-$150.000 billion ngo-2025.
Abahlinzeki abakhulu be-cloud kanye ne-hyperscale bakhulisa ngamandla ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabo enkulu kuma -GPU, ama-accelerator e-AI, kanye ne-high-bandwidth memory (HBM) , okuholela izinkampani ezisungula izinto ezifana ne-TSMC ekukhiqizeni ama-wafer aphezulu kakhulu ekubaleni okuphezulu. I-TSMC ngokwayo ilindele ukuthi abaprosesa be-AI bangabalela cishe ingxenye yesihlanu yemali engenayo yayo eminyakeni embalwa, okuzothinta kakhulu imboni yonke.
Lo mkhuba we-AI awugcini nje esikhungweni sedatha; udlulela emaphethelweni enethiwekhi. Ngokwandayo, ama-smartphone, izinto ezigqokwayo, amadivayisi e-IoT, kanye nezinto zasekhaya ezihlakaniphile zifaka amayunithi okucubungula ama-neural (ama-NPU) kanye nama-ASIC anamandla aphansi akwazi ukusebenzisa amamodeli okufunda komshini kudivayisi, athuthukise ubumfihlo futhi anciphise ukubambezeleka uma kuqhathaniswa nefu.
Ukuhlangana kwekhompyutha, inkumbulo, kanye nengqalasizinda kudala izendlalelo ezintsha zobungcweti: Inkumbulo ye-HBM isibe cishe yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kuma-accelerator e-AI , kuyilapho izikhungo zedatha ziklama kabusha izakhiwo zazo zamandla nokupholisa (ngokuvamile ngezinhlelo zokupholisa uketshezi) ukuze zisekele ubuningi bamandla bama-kilowatts amaningana nge-rack ngayinye. Lokhu futhi kuqhubekisela phambili isidingo samasekethe ahlanganisiwe okuphathwa kwamandla okuthuthukisiwe, izinzwa zokushisa, kanye nezingxenye zamandla zesizukulwane esilandelayo.
Umjikelezo wemboni, uhlobo lokujikeleza kanye nendima yezimakethe zokugcina
Ngale kokukhuphuka kwe-AI, umkhakha we-semiconductor ugcina ukukhula kwesakhiwo okungaphezu kwe-GDP yomhlaba wonke , ngoba isizukulwane ngasinye esisha semikhiqizo sihlanganisa ama-chip amaningi kunangaphambili. Okuqukethwe kwe-semiconductor ezimotweni, kumadivayisi abathengi, emishinini yezimboni, kanye nemishini yezokuxhumana kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, okwenza ama-microchip abe umgogodla wangempela womphakathi wedijithali.
Kodwa-ke, kuyimboni ejikelezayo kakhulu, ezwela kakhulu ukungalingani kokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo . Ukwakha ifektri yesimanje kuthatha iminyaka futhi kudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okungamashumi ezigidigidi, okuholela ekubambezelekeni kokutholakala kwamandla engeziwe emakethe. Lokhu kuholela emijikelezweni ephindaphindayo yokuntuleka kanye nokunikezwa ngokweqile, okuthinta amanani kanye nokusebenza kwemakethe yamasheya ezinkampani kulo mkhakha.
Ngo-2023, kwalungiswa ngemuva kokwakhiwa kwempahla ngemuva kobhubhane , ikakhulukazi ezigabeni ezifana nememori, ama-PC, nama-smartphone, okwaholela ekwehleni kokuthengisa uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022 (cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-70.000 ngaphansi, ngokusho kwe-Statista). Lokhu kulungiswa kuye kwancipha kancane kancane kulo lonke u-2024, ngezimpawu zokuthuthuka kwememori ye-DRAM ne-NAND kanye nokubuyela emuva kancane kancane kuma-electronics abathengi.
Idatha evela kwi-Semiconductor Industry Association iphakamisa ukuthi lo mkhakha usesigabeni sokukhula okusheshayo ngaphakathi komjikelezo , okuhambisana ngokomlando nokusebenza kahle kwemakethe yamasheya. Kodwa-ke, i-SOX Equal Weighted Index, elandela izinkampani ezinkulu kulo mkhakha, yehle ngaphezu kuka-20% ngaphansi kwezinga layo eliphezulu lakamuva, okubonisa ukukhathazeka kwemakethe ngamandla kanye nokusimama kokusimama.
Kuze kube manje, lo mjikelezo ubuphethwe kakhulu yi-AI, kuyilapho ezinye izindawo ezibalulekile—ama-smartphone, amakhompyutha omuntu siqu, imishini yezimboni, kanye nezimoto—zibonise ukujwayela okuhamba kancane. Umkhakha wezimoto, othinteke kakhulu yizinkinga ze-chip ngesikhathi sobhubhane, usaqhubeka nezinqubo zokulungisa isitokwe , yize lo mkhuba ukhomba ekuzinzeni kancane kancane.
Izici eziqhuba isidingo sesakhiwo
Uma sibheka isikhathi esimaphakathi neside, isidingo se-semiconductor sisekelwa amandla amaningana amakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe nakwezomnotho . Ukwanda kwezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-AI kanye nokufunda komshini, kokubili efwini nasemaphethelweni, kuqhuba ukusetshenziswa kwe-logic esebenza kahle kanye nama-memory chips. I-WSTS ibikezele ukukhula kwamadijithi amabili unyaka nonyaka (cishe ama-37% e-logic kanye nama-20% ememori engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025) okusekelwe yingqalasizinda yesikhungo sedatha kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza zokuqala ze-AI ezithuthukisiwe.
Kulokhu kunezinye izindlela zokuthambekela: ukwanda kwamanethiwekhi e-5G kanye nokuhlolwa kokuqala kwe-6G , ukwamukelwa kabanzi kwe-cloud computing, ukwamukelwa kwamaphrinta e-3D, ukuzenzekela kwezimboni okusekelwe ku-IoT, kanye nokufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha ngobuningi. Ngayinye yalezi zobuchwepheshe idinga inhlanganisela eyinkimbinkimbi yama-chip e-analog, izinsiza zamandla, izinzwa, amaprosesa, kanye nememori.
Imoto iyisibonelo esiyinhloko salolu shintsho lwendlela: ama-elekthronikhi kakade abiza cishe u-40% wezindleko eziphelele zemoto yenjini yokushisa , futhi lesi sibalo sikhuphuka nakakhulu ezimotweni zikagesi nasemamodelini anezinhlelo zokusiza abashayeli ezithuthukisiwe (i-ADAS). Izimoto zikagesi kanye nezinhlelo zokushayela ezizimele zeLevel 2+ nangaphezulu zifaka ama-semiconductor engeziwe kagesi (i-silicon carbide, i-gallium nitride), amaprosesa asebenza kahle kakhulu okuhlanganisa izinzwa, kanye nama-chip azinikele okuphepha okusebenzayo.
Ushintsho lwamandla lukhulisa nokubaluleka kwama-semiconductor kagesi kuma -solar kanye nama-wind inverters kanye nezinhlelo zokugcina amandla . Lezi zingxenye zibalulekile ekuthuthukiseni ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kanye nokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa ekuguqulweni nasekuphathweni kwamandla, kokubili ekukhiqizeni kabusha kanye nama-smart grid.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwalezi zici kusikisela isidingo sesakhiwo esikhuphuka ngokuqinile, yize kungengenxa yokuphakama nokwehla kwaso. Ukukhula okukhulu kakhulu kungacindezela uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka , kuyilapho ukungena ngasikhathi sinye kwenani elikhulu lamandla amasha kungaholela ezigamekweni zokuphakelwa ngokweqile kanye nokwehla kwengcindezi emananini, njengoba kwabonakala kakade ngo-2023.
Ukusekelwa kukahulumeni, ukufuduka, kanye nezingozi zokusebenzisa ngokweqile
Ukubaluleka kwesu kwama-semiconductors kuholele ohulumeni bezomnotho ezinkulu ukuthi baqalise izinhlelo zokukhuthaza ezingakaze zibonwe ngaphambili ukuze kuqiniswe ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya, kuhlukaniswe uchungechunge lokuphakelwa, futhi kuncishiswe ukuthembela e-Asia.
Ku-European Union, lokho okubizwa ngokuthi i- European Chip Act kuhlanganisa ama-euro angaba yizigidigidi ezingama-43.000 ngenhloso yokuphinda kabili isabelo se-EU semakethe yomhlaba wonke sibe ngu-20% ngo-2030. IBrussels ifuna ukwakha i-ecosystem eqinile, isekele amafektri asezingeni eliphezulu, futhi iqinise isikhundla saseYurophu ngezigaba lapho isivele inamandla khona, njengezimoto, izimboni, kanye ne-compound semiconductors (i-silicon carbide, i-gallium nitride) ezihloselwe amandla avuselelekayo.
E-United States, uMthetho we-CHIPS and Science, owaphasiswa ngo-2022, wabela cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-52.000 kwizibonelelo eziqondile kanye namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100.000 kwizikhuthazo zentela zokuvuselela ukukhiqizwa kwe-semiconductor yasekhaya nokusekela amaphrojekthi amakhulu ezimboni zokupakisha ezinengqondo, inkumbulo, kanye nezimboni zokupakisha ezithuthukisiwe. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi, kufaka phakathi utshalomali oluzimele, izibopho eziphelele ezimenyezelwe ezifundazweni ezahlukahlukene sezivele zidlula amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-540.000.
I-India ijoyine lo mjaho ngohlelo olukhulu lokugqugquzela ukuheha ukutshalwa kwezimali ekukhiqizeni ama-chip, ukupakisha, kanye nokuhlola (i-OSAT) . Isibonelo esingokomfanekiso uhlelo lukaMicron lokuvula isitshalo sokuhlanganisa nokuhlola i-DRAM kanye ne-NAND eGujarat, oluhambisana nesu lezwe lokunciphisa ukungeniswa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kanye nokufisa ukuba ngumdlali obalulekile ochungechungeni lokuphakelwa kwe-semiconductor emhlabeni jikelele.
I-China, yona, iqhubekisela phambili imephu yayo yendlela ethi “Made in China 2025” ngokusekelwa okuqinile kwezimboni zasendaweni, ukuthuthukiswa kwamathuluzi e-EDA asekhaya kanye nokwakhiwa kwamakhono ezindaweni ezivuthiwe (28 nm nangaphezulu), ngenkathi ibhekene nemikhawulo ekhulayo yokungeniswa kwemishini ethuthukisiwe kanye nesofthiwe evela e-US kanye nabalingani bayo.
Lokhu kusetshenziswa kwezinto ezikhuthazayo kunezinhlangothi ezimbili: ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuhlukanisa ukukhiqizwa ngokwendawo futhi kunciphisa ubuthakathaka obuhambisana nokugxilisa ingqondo ngokweqile eMpumalanga Asia; ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunengozi yokuthi amandla amasha azokhula ngokushesha kunesidingo sangempela, okudala izigaba zomthamo oweqile, ingcindezi emaphethelweni kanye nezigameko zezimpi zamanani emigqeni ethile yomkhiqizo.
Ukungezwani kwezepolitiki kanye nokulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe
Ubuholi kuma-semiconductors bube yisahluko esiyinhloko embangweni wezobuchwepheshe phakathi kwe-United States ne-China , okunomthelela oqondile esakhiweni semakethe. Izikhathi ezilandelanayo zokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe e-US azikhawulelanga nje kuphela ukuthengiswa kwama-AI athuthukile kanye nama-supercomputing chips ezinkampanini zaseShayina, kodwa futhi nokunikezwa kwemishini yokukhiqiza, amathuluzi okukala, isofthiwe yokuhlaziya umklamo we-elekthronikhi (i-EDA), kanye nezinsizakalo zokulungisa.
INetherlands iqinise imikhawulo emishinini ethile ye-deep lithography kanye ne-extreme ultraviolet (EUV), ethinta abahlinzeki ababalulekile njenge-ASML, kuyilapho amanye amazwe aseNtshonalanga ebeka izidingo zelayisensi yokuthumela imishini ebalulekile kwamanye amazwe. Lezi zinyathelo ziholele ekutheni izinkampani eziningi zaseShayina zibhekane nezithiyo ezengeziwe zelayisensi , zisheshisa izinhlelo zokushintshana zendawo futhi zishintsha amasu okuthenga abakhiqizi abakhulu be-chip.
Ukungezwani kwezepolitiki nakho kuyabonakala esimweni saseTaiwan, indawo eyinhloko yomhlaba wonke yokukhiqizwa kwe-semiconductor ethuthukisiwe: nge-TSMC, lesi siqhingi sithatha cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezinhlanu zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-semiconductors esezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele . I-CEO yenkampani uqobo lwayo ixwayise ngokuthi ingxabano yezempi esifundeni ingamisa ukukhiqizwa kwayo, okuzoba nemiphumela emibi emnothweni womhlaba.
Empeleni, izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe kulo mkhakha zisabela ngamasu okuthola izinto ezimbili, izinhlelo zokukhiqiza ezingafuneki ezifundeni ezahlukene , kanye nezinsiza ezandisiwe ezibekelwe ukuthobela imithetho kanye nokuphathwa kwezingozi. Lokhu kuhlukana kwemithetho kwandisa izindleko zokuxhumanisa, kwenza kube nzima ukwenziwa kwezindinganiso, futhi kungalibazisa ukwethulwa kwemakethe kwamanye amadivayisi ancike ezintanjeni zokuphakelwa zomhlaba wonke.
Izitayela zobuchwepheshe ezibalulekile: ama-node, ama-chiplet, kanye ne-lithography
Ngasohlangothini lwezobuchwepheshe, lo mkhakha uhamba ngezindlela ezimbili: ngakolunye uhlangothi, umncintiswano wama -node okukhiqiza athuthuke kakhulu (3 nm, 2 nm kanye ne-sub-2 nm) ; ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusetshenziswa kwama-node avuthiwe ahlala ebalulekile kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ze-analog, amandla kanye ne-microcontroller.
Cishe ngo-2024, izinqubo ze-5nm zazingaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yemali engenayo ye-foundry, kuyilapho ipulatifomu ye-3nm yaqala ukuthola ukuthandwa , isondela ku-20% wemali engenayo ye-TSMC. Abokuqala ukwamukela lawa ma-node bekungama-processor ezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-smartphone ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye nama-SoC agxile ku-AI. Umkhakha wezimoto, ogcina izinto ngendlela ehlelekile ngenxa yezimfanelo zawo kanye nezidingo zokuphepha ezisebenzayo, uzolandela njengoba amalabhulali eqediwe futhi izinqubo ziqinisekiswa.
Amajiyomethri avuthiwe (28 nm nangaphezulu) ahlala enempilo enhle kakhulu ngenxa yama-IC okuphathwa kwamandla, ama-microcontroller, kanye nama-front-ends e-RF , lapho isihluthulelo sisebenza kahle njenge-analog, ukuqina, kanye nezindleko, kunokuba kube ukuminyana kwe-transistor. Ama-Foundries afana ne-GlobalFoundries, i-UMC, kanye ne-SMIC asebenzisa lesi sidingo ngezinqubo ezilungiselelwe imvamisa yomsakazo, imemori engashintshi efakiwe, kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezithile.
Ushintsho olukhulu lwendlela yokuklama ukwamukelwa kwezakhiwo ezisekelwe ku-chiplet kanye nokupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe . Esikhundleni sokuklama i-monolithic die eyodwa, abakhiqizi baqala ukuhlanganisa ama-silicon chips amaningana akhethekile (ama-CPU, ama-GPU, ama-accelerator, amabhlogo okuphepha) abe yiphakheji eyodwa, exhunywe kusetshenziswa amazinga afana ne-UCIe. Lokhu kunciphisa izindleko zokuthuthukisa, kuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza, futhi kwenza kube lula ukwakheka kwe-modularity enkulu.
Ku-lithography, ukuthunyelwa kwemishini ye-EUV enezimbobo eziningi kumelela esinye sezithiyo ezinkulu zokungena embonini : umshini ngamunye ungabiza cishe amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-380 futhi udinga izikhungo ezikhethekile kakhulu, kusukela ezitezi eziqinile kakhulu kuya ekuhlinzekweni kwamanzi nogesi okuzinzile. Inselele akuyona nje eyobuchwepheshe kodwa futhi eyomnotho, ivimbela ukufinyelela kubadlali abambalwa abanokusekelwa kwezezimali okwanele.
Ukuhlukaniswa kwemakethe kanye namamodeli ebhizinisi
Uma sibheka imboni ngohlobo lwedivayisi, amasekethe ahlanganisiwe enza imali engaphezu kuka-80% , eqhutshwa ama-CPU, ama-GPU, inkumbulo, kanye namasekethe e-logic anabantu abaningi. Le ngxenye kulindeleke ukuthi igcine ukukhula okungu-6-7% minyaka yonke, okusekelwa yizikhungo zedatha, amapulatifomu e-AI, ama-elekthronikhi ezimoto, kanye nokwenza izinto ngokuzenzakalela kwezimboni.
Ama-semiconductor ahlukene (ama-diode, ama-transistors anamandla, ama-thyristors), yize emele ingxenye encane yemakethe ngenani, abalulekile ekulawulweni kwamandla kagesi, ekushayeleni kwemoto, nasekushintsheni imvamisa yomsakazo . Ukufika kwezinto ezifana ne-silicon carbide (SiC) kanye ne-gallium nitride (GaN) kushintsha izinhlelo zokusebenza ze-high-voltage ziye ezixazululweni ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, njengezi-traction inverters kanye nama-fast charger ezimoto zikagesi.
Ama-Optoelectronics (ama-LED, ama-laser, izinzwa zesithombe, ama-optocouplers) ayazuza ekusetshenzisweni kwamakhamera okubona komshini, i-LiDAR yezimoto, ukuxhumana okubonakalayo, kanye nezinhlelo zokukhanyisa ezithuthukisiwe. Izinzwa namadivayisi e-MEMS (ingcindezi, insimu yamagnetic, ama-accelerometer, ama-gyroscope, izinga lokushisa) akhula kanye ne-Industrial Internet of Things, ukwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo kwenqubo, kanye nezinhlelo zokuqapha zesikhathi sangempela.
Ngokombono wemodeli yebhizinisi, izinkampani ezingenazo izitayela kakade zibamba imali engaphezu kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zemali engenayo, zisebenzisa ubuchule bazo bokuklama futhi zigxile ekusetshenzisweni okukhethekile ngenkathi zithumela ukukhiqiza kwamanye amazwe ezindaweni zokukhiqiza ezikhethekile. Le ndlela ifaneleka kakhulu igagasi lama-chiplet kanye nokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe, lapho kungenzeka khona ukuhlanganisa i-IP evela kubathengisi abaningi ibe umkhiqizo wokugcina owodwa.
Abakhiqizi abahlanganisiwe (ama-IDM), bona, balondoloza izikhundla eziqinile kwimemori, kuma-processor e-x86, kuma-analog kagesi, kanye nasezimotweni, yize abaningi besebenzisa amamodeli ahlanganisiwe ahlanganisa amakhono angaphakathi nezinsizakalo zokwenziwa kwensimbi ezivela eceleni. Lokhu kuhlangana kufiphaza imingcele yendabuko phakathi kwabaklami nabakhiqizi.
Ukubuka konke kwesifunda: i-Asia-Pacific, iNyakatho Melika kanye neYurophu
Ngokwendawo, i-Asia-Pacific izohlala iyisizinda semakethe ye-semiconductor eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Ngo-2024, lesi sifunda sabamba imali engaphezu kwezingxenye ezine kwezinhlanu zenzuzo yomhlaba wonke; kulindeleke ukuthi sisamele iningi elicacile cishe ngo-2030, kanti amazinga okukhula asondele ku-7% ngonyaka.
I-China, i-Japan, i-South Korea, i-Taiwan, ne-India zidlala indima ehlukile kule ndawo. I-China ihola ukunwetshwa kwama-node avuthiwe kanye nokwakhiwa kwezikhungo zedatha kanye namanethiwekhi e-5G, okusekelwa yizinqubomgomo zokufaka esikhundleni sokungenisa kanye nezinhlelo ezinkulu zokusebenzisa ingqalasizinda yedijithali. I-Japan igcina isikhundla sayo njengomhlinzeki obalulekile wezinto ezinembile kakhulu, ama-wafer, namakhemikhali , futhi ihlala ikhona kakhulu ezigabeni zezinzwa namandla. I-South Korea ibusa i-DRAM ne-NAND yanamuhla, kuyilapho i-Taiwan igxile kubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe be-3nm kanye ne-5nm foundry.
I-India iyavela njengesikhungo sokukhiqiza nokuhlanganisa, ngokusekelwa ngumphakathi kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani, kusukela ekuklanyweni kuya ekupakisheni, ifuna ukusizakala ngokungeniswa kwayo kwama-chip okukhulayo nokuheha utshalomali ezinkampanini ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe. Lezi zinhlelo zihlose ukudala inethiwekhi yesifunda elinganiselayo, engancikile kakhulu kunoma yiliphi izwe elilodwa.
ENyakatho Melika, inhlanganisela yezikhuthazo zikahulumeni kanye nobuchwepheshe bokuklama ivuselela ukuvela kabusha kwamaphrojekthi efektri yasekhaya. Abadlali abakhulu embonini bamemezele ukutshalwa kwezimali ezitshalweni ezintsha zokubhala, inkumbulo, kanye nokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe e-United States, okuvame ukuhambisana nezinhlelo zokuqeqesha ngokubambisana namanyuvesi kanye nezikhungo zocwaningo. Lesi sifunda siyaqhubeka nokubala ngaphezu kwengxenye yokuthengiswa kwezinkampani ezingenazo inganekwane emhlabeni jikelele.
IYurophu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, yakha isu "lokuzimela okuvulekile kwesu ," ifuna ukuqinisa isikhundla sayo emikhakheni lapho isivele incintisana khona: izimoto, izimboni, amandla avuselelekayo, kanye nama-chip okuvikela. Amazwe afana neJalimane, iFrance, neNetherlands aheha amaphrojekthi agxile kumadivayisi kagesi e-SiC kanye ne-GaN, kanye ne-lithography kanye neminye imishini yokukhiqiza.
Imakethe ye-Power semiconductor: gxila e-Asia naseNyakatho Melika
Ngaphakathi kwesambulela esibanzi sama-semiconductor, amadivayisi kagesi athola ukuvelela okwandayo, ikakhulukazi esimweni sokufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha kanye nokushintsha kwamandla. Ngo-2035, i-Asia-Pacific kulindeleke ukuthi ifake imali engaphezu kuka-42% kule ndawo, ngenxa yokwanda kokukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi eShayina, eJapane, naseNdiya, kanye nokuqaliswa okukhulu kwamanethiwekhi e-5G.
I-China ihlanganisa ukunwetshwa kwengqalasizinda yayo ye-5G nokwakhiwa kwezikhungo zedatha kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezomnotho wayo okusheshayo, okudinga izixazululo ze-semiconductor zamandla ezithuthukisiwe ukuze kuphathwe kahle ukuhlinzekwa kwamandla eziteshini eziyisisekelo kanye namapulatifomu amafu. Lo mzamo uqiniswa yizikhuthazo zikahulumeni ezihlose ukuqinisa ukuzimela kobuchwepheshe naphezu kwemingcele yangaphandle.
I-India isebenzisa izivumelwano zamasu nezinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe ukudala isisekelo sezimboni zasendaweni sokuhlanganiswa nokuhlolwa kwama-chip kagesi, okuhambisana nemigomo yayo yokunciphisa ukuncika kokungenisa kwamanye amazwe nokuba ngumdlali obalulekile ochungechungeni lwenani lomhlaba wonke. Lokhu kusunduza kugxile kuma-elekthronikhi abathengi, izimoto, kanye nezokuxhumana.
ENyakatho Melika, imakethe ye-power semiconductor ikhula kanye nokwamukelwa kwe-ADAS nezimoto zikagesi . Abenzi bezimoto basheshisa ukushintshela kwabo kumamodeli kagesi kanye nezici zokushayela ezizimele, bandisa kakhulu inani lama-chip e-SiC ne-GaN ngemoto ngayinye. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amaphrojekthi afana ne-Bosch's eCalifornia, asekelwa yizibonelelo zomphakathi, aqinisa ukukhiqizwa kwendawo kwama-power semiconductors ezinhlelo zokusebenza zokuhamba kagesi.
I-Canada ivelele ngokutshalwa kwezimali kwayo ku-R&D kanye namaphrojekthi okubambisana ahlose ukuqinisa ikhono layo ekuklanyweni nasekukhiqizweni kwezingxenye ezithuthukisiwe, ifuna isikhundla esifaneleka kakhulu kunethiwekhi yokuhlinzeka ngama-microchip emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi ngezinhlelo zokubambisana kwezemfundo nezimboni.
Inselele yamathalente, izindleko kanye nohlobo lwamasu
Enye yezingqinamba ezingabonakali kodwa ezibaluleke kakhulu ukuntuleka komhlaba wonke kwamakhono anekhono ekuklanyweni kwama-chip, ubunjiniyela bezinqubo ze-sub-5nm, ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe, kanye nokuphathwa kwefektri. Izinkampani eziningi zibika ubunzima obandayo ekuheheni nasekugcineni ochwepheshe abafanelekayo, okungavimbela ukwenziwa kwezindlela zobuchwepheshe ezidingakalayo.
Okungeziwe kulokhu yizindleko ezinkulu zokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokusebenza kwezikhungo zokuncibilikisa ezisezingeni eliphezulu, lapho izitshalo ngazinye zidlula kalula amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20.000. Imboni iphinde ibhekane nokulinganiselwa kwemithombo ekhulayo, njengamanzi kanye namandla, kwamanye amaqoqo okuncibilikisa, okwengeza ingcindezi maqondana nokusimama kanye nokuqina.
Naphezu kwalezi zinselele, lo mkhakha ugcina izici zesakhiwo ezikhangayo: ezigabeni eziningi ezibalulekile—i-lithography, imishini yokukhiqiza, izinto ezibalulekile—kunesakhiwo semakethe se-oligopolistic , esinabahlinzeki abambalwa abaphambili kanye nezithiyo eziphakeme kakhulu zokungena. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ubunzima obandayo bezinqubo zokukhiqiza ama-chip ezithuthukisiwe buqinisa izinzuzo zokuncintisana zalabo asebevele bephambili.
Ukuhlanganiswa kokuqukethwe okuphezulu kobuchwepheshe, ukubaluleka kwe-geostrategic, kanye nendima ebalulekile ekwenzeni idijithali kanye nokuphepha (kufaka phakathi ukuphepha kwe-cyber kanye nokuvikela) kwenza ama-semiconductors abe imboni ebalulekile yobukhosi bezobuchwepheshe bezwe . Ngakho-ke, izinhlelo zokusekela umphakathi kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha zihlala isikhathi eside futhi ngokuvamile zivikelwe ekushintsheni kwezepolitiki kwesikhathi esifushane.
Isimo esikhulayo siyadinga kodwa sithembisa kakhulu: njengoba i-AI, ukuzenzekela kwezimboni, ukufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha, kanye noshintsho lwamandla kuqhubeka ngamandla, zonke izinkomba zikhomba ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo se-semiconductor, yize kuphazanyiswa imijikelezo yokulungisa. Izinkampani ezikwazi ukusungula izinto ezintsha, ukuphatha ngempumelelo umjikelezo, ukuhlukanisa ukukhiqizwa kwazo ngokwendawo, kanye nokuhamba nge-labyrinth yokulawula neye-geopolitical zizoba sesimweni esihle kakhulu sokuthola inani elikhulu elisele elizodalwa kule mboni ebalulekile.
